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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.