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The most severe potential impacts of the global heating for the UK have been outlined by scientists, ranging from a blistering 4C increase in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot rise in ocean levels. A separate possibility predicts a drop of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and energy demand.

Possible Events, Not Predictions

These impacts, certain ones are associated with critical climate thresholds, are considered as improbable but plausible. The team explained that these projections filled a gap in forecasting that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The climate extremes we have detailed should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," said the professor who oversaw the research. "The UK has been planning in the absence of the tools to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to plan for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but must not overlook."

A Range of Harsh Climate Scenarios

Another collection of severe models details the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the close of the 2100s. These suggest that temperatures could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above historical levels, while precipitation could be 300% of typical amounts.

The probability of the worst-case outcomes occurring cannot be precisely determined due to uncertainty about what steps will be implemented to tackle climate change and how the planet's climate will respond. This approach was described as similar to national security risk assessments or resilience checks for economic stability.

Key Scenario Elements

• Four-Degree Warming: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could occur if international cooperation breaks down or if strong feedback loops like the Amazon basin dying emit its huge repository of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heat domes and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to ocean warming. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and freshwater availability would be drastically changed," said the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if glaciers in the polar regions melt abruptly, submerging seaside communities. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because aerosol particles from burning coal reflect sunlight from warming the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Worst

The worst-case scenarios could be utilized in planning the development of critical national infrastructure, for example housing developments, power generation facilities and water management networks. Awareness of these environmental threats could also hasten the transition to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

The study developed the extreme models using a blend of observed and historical experience, computer simulations and scientific theory. The scenarios do not take into account potential global problems such as the devastation of food supplies and resource wars.

This work was commissioned as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Earlier reports have stated that too little consideration was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and assess the dangers for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been criticised as being "very weak" by some observers.

An official statement commented: "Global warming is at the heart of the country's focus, both building resilience and establishing itself as a clean energy superpower. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the impacts."